Taiwan is Learning From Russia’s Mistakes in Ukraine

Jay Ramesh

Prussian chancellor Otto von Bismarck once said “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.” Today, Taiwan is learning from the mistakes of Russia.

To commemorate the 100th anniversary of its founding, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), or in other words mainland China, announced in 2017 that it seeks to unify Taiwan with China by 2049. China is willing to take Taiwan by force, as the island represents a threat to the legitimacy of the Communist Party (CCP). However, as time progresses, the people of Taiwan begin to develop a deeper sense of cultural identity, separate from the mainland. They value their democratic institutions, traditions, and de facto independence. And they’re not looking to unify with the mainland anytime soon.

Taiwan currently has mandatory 4-month conscription for all men, and recent polls have shown that 70% of the population is in favor of extending that duration further. The small island nation of 23 million has always been concerned about facing its huge mainland neighbor, and many in the past have predicted that, while a Chinese amphibious invasion would be costly, China could easily overwhelm Taiwan. That perception is beginning to change, but the lessons that Taiwan is learning have come from thousands of miles away.

The Russo-Ukrainian war that has been raging since February 24, 2022 has shown the world that smaller powers can still stand up to larger powers and defend themselves. Anti-tank weapon systems such as the Javelin and MLAW have neutralized tens of Russian tanks. Cheap, easy-to-make drones have wreaked havoc on infantry squads, and even old S-300 anti-air platforms can neutralize modern fighters and bombers. 

Ukraine has also exploited the oldest trick in the book: cutting off the enemy’s supplies and disrupting their logistics. By cutting off Russian supply lines, Ukraine has been able to slow the Russian advance to a crawl, causing fuel, food, and ammunition shortages amongst frontline Russian troops. If the Ukrainians can keep the Russian spearhead blunted, we may even begin to see a Syria-style long war of attrition and minimal gains emerge all across Ukraine.

But how does this affect Taiwan?

Ukraine and Taiwan’s situations, while having some similarities, are very different. Taiwan is an island with a mountainous heartland, while Ukraine consists of flat plains and light forests. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, at least on paper, doesn’t seek outright annexation of the country, while a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would. And Ukraine is internationally recognized as a sovereign nation, while Taiwan is not.

However, Taiwan is still learning weapons, tactics, propaganda, and strategies from Ukraine that could allow them to hold out against the Chinese behemoth. For instance, Ukrainian president Zelenksy’s survival has enabled him to rally the Ukrainian nation against Russia as well as advocate for Ukraine’s cause on the world stage. If China were to attack Taiwan, they would most likely seek a quick, decisive decapitation of Taiwanese leadership: they would try to assassinate the president and important government leaders in China before their troops reach Taiwan’s beaches. Taiwan is already working on drills and strategies to counter this threat.

In the past, Taiwan has sought quality over quantity, choosing to arm itself with expensive, high-end equipment, such as American F-16 fighter jets and M1 Abrams tanks. However, the war in Ukraine has shown that a single soldier with a Javelin missile can take out an entire tank, and a single anti-air piece can shoot down semi-modern fighters and bombers. Small, cheap kamikaze drones could be detonated against troop landing ships, and guerilla fighting in the mountains can keep the Chinese Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) tied down near-indefinitely.

A Home-Grown Defense Industry?

Taiwan has learned that David can indeed hold out against Goliath, but a bigger looming question is that of supply. Arms and missiles have poured into Ukraine from its border with Poland, a NATO member. However, in the event of an invasion, the Chinese would almost certainly send their burgeoning navy to blockade Taiwan and prevent any foreign aid or supplies from entering the country. 

The Chinese navy will bombard Taiwanese cities and beaches. Ballistic missiles and MLRS systems will rain hell upon strategic targets like fuel depots, airfields, and bunkers. Chinese fighters will be patrolling the skies, while their bombers keep Taiwanese resistance pinned down. There isn’t much space to maneuver on the small island as there is in Ukraine, and on top of all of that, Taiwan won’t be able to receive any aid from the outside world. It is absolutely imperative that Taiwan’s begin to expand its domestic, self-sustaining defense industry.

The island already has a thriving defense industry, but losing air superiority over its skies could reduce the entire industry to rubble. If it wishes to survive a potential Chinese attack, Taiwan must take steps to boost its air defenses, protect its industrial centers, and reach a point where it can supply itself indefinitely if war breaks out. If Ukraine fighting Russia is David fighting Goliath, then Taiwan fighting China would be if David’s legs were tied and he was fighting with one hand tied behind his back. Taiwan must study the Ukraine conflict closely to learn the steps it must take to defeat a much larger power. If it doesn’t, then China may once again be unified after all.