Cuba Goes Dark as the US Eyes its Next Regime Change Target
Written on March 29th, 2026
Earlier in March, Cuba was plunged into nearly complete nationwide darkness for the first time since the US began its oil embargo in January. As the sanctions have brought the energy grid to its knees, the humanitarian situation has become dire: social services are severely limited, trash is piling up on the streets, surgeries and other critical healthcare are postponed, and blackouts occur for longer and more frequently. Food is scarce, and mosquito-borne illnesses prey on the malnourished as the standing water breeding grounds are left unremoved. Effectively, the country has shut down, and the policy choices of the US government in pursuit of another regime change are the direct catalyst.
For basic survival, Cuba requires roughly 100,00 barrels of oil per day, but produces just 40,000 domestically. The gap in production has historically been bridged by foreign benefactors—first the Soviet Union, then Venezuela. But after the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s oil shipments were quickly halted. Under the threat of aggressive tariffs, Mexican energy assistance faltered, too. With little external support, the remaining supply could run out within the next few weeks.
Why is the US exerting so much pressure? President Donald Trump has clearly (and bluntly) indicated that Cuba is next on the list for regime change, threatening the communist government with hints at a forceful takeover. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, has suggested that the pressure could be eased if the Cuban government accepted liberalizing their centrally planned economy. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel did admit to opening formal talks with Washington on March 13th, but with the key condition that negotiations must respect “the political systems of both states” and the “sovereignty and self-determination” of both governments. In other words, the notoriously stubborn Cuban regime is unlikely to go quietly.
But these negotiations place the Cuban government in a serious bind. Conceding power or any reorganization of the Cuban political system represents a violation of sovereignty as well as the end of the revolutionary state. Refuse, and the Cuban people continue to absorb the brunt of the US-manufactured crisis. Further, the regime is fearful of the precedent set by the US via its actions in Venezuela: negotiate, and then get attacked anyway.
As the two ideological rivals circle each other, a third actor is attempting to complicate Washington’s position. On March 8th, the Russian tankerAnatoly Kolodkin departed for the Atlantic carrying 750,000 barrels of crude oil escorted by a Russian naval vessel. As this amount of oil would only supply Cuba for a few weeks, this measure is little more than posturing by the Kremlin to assert Russia’s image as Cuba’s diplomatic defender. But regardless, it presents a significant geopolitical provocation. If the US allows the oil to reach Cuba, its sanctions regime is exposed as weak and unenforceable. If the US interdicts the vessel, without the legal authority to do so from a UN Security Council resolution, it would be interpreted as an act of state-to-state aggression against Russia. This complication reveals the strategic incoherence of the oil embargo, and the Cuban people are the ones bearing the cost.
The humanitarian crisis will only worsen if the pressure and aggression against Cuba continue. For the US, this presents several undesirable consequences, including a potential massive exodus of refugees and the further erosion of its already devastated “moral” authority on the world stage. A negotiated settlement for political reform in exchange for desperately needed economic relief, as opposed to regime change by attrition, is the best possible outcome. This would ultimately meet the needs of the Cuban people and satisfy the somewhat convoluted desires of the Trump administration. But if the regime remains unyielding, and Washington’s blunt diplomatic instrument persists indiscriminately, Cuba is headed for complete catastrophe.