Hope on the Horizon
New York Times opinion columnist Bret Stephens has recently published an article with which I tend to agree, to say the least. It’s titled “A Day of American Infamy,” and I suggest that you take a look at it: it speaks to what I can assume has been on most of our minds recently. He begins the article with a powerful example, from the dark days of World War II, when our timeless ally, Britain, faced an existential threat in the bombs unleashed by Nazi Germany:
“If [Franklin] Roosevelt had told [Winston] Churchill to sue for peace on any terms with Adolf Hitler and to fork over Britain’s coal reserves to the United States in exchange for no American security guarantees, it might have approximated what Trump did to Zelensky.”
If you’re like me, and have found yourself asking “What just happened?” after reading just some of the choice news articles published these last few weeks (see: when the United States of America joined the despots of the world, among them Russia, North Korea, Belarus, and Israel in a UN vote against a “Comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in Ukraine”), this is the answer: the United States government has sold out an ally to the lowest bidder: Vladimir Putin, a bloodthirsty autocrat lying to our president through his teeth.
All of this would be less shocking if Trump’s positions weren’t so wandering and inconsistent. In a visit to the White House, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, bringing flattery and an opportunity for a state visit with King Charles III, managed to get it out of Trump that American backing of Ukraine would be “an honorable thing to do,” even walking back his ridiculous claim that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a “dictator without elections” (“Did I say that? I can’t believe I said that. Next question.” He said). This, of course, coming after weeks of bashing the embattled Ukrainian president with attacks both within the Oval Office and without.
To those readers who are struggling to find hope, I myself have considered joining you. We are living in times that do indeed rhyme with those deadly years of 1939-1945. But research into historical precedent has brought enlightenment, with tidings of what could be, at the very least, a better time of this administration ahead for all of us.
I’m referring to the 2026 midterm elections, in which dozens of seats in the United States Congress will be up for grabs in districts across the country. Data over many years and many elections tend to reveal that, on average, the incumbent administration’s party loses 25-28 seats in midterms, with unpopular presidents standing to lose even more. Donald Trump is uniquely unpopular outside of his base. In 2018, even with a relatively strong economy, Trump led his party into a wipeout, losing 40 House seats. His core supporters remained fanatically devoted, to be sure, but the broader electorate—especially suburban voters and independents—recoiled from his relentless chaos, corruption, and extremism.
There is no reason to believe 2026 will be any different. Trump has shown that he will govern in 2025 as he did before—by battering institutions, gutting environmental regulations, provoking international crises, and treating NATO like an afterthought—and his party will suffer the consequences. The backlash will be swift, and the Republican majority in Congress will likely be shattered.
This will not eliminate the threat Trump poses, however. The president has made stunning use of (arguably autocratic) executive orders to shove through otherwise unpopular legislation, among which came numerous heavy tariffs on American allies, and the bizarre orders to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, and Denali, the tallest mountain in America, back to Mount McKinley. His star-studded cast of vaccine-denying, amoral, totally professionally and morally unqualified cabinet picks, too, will continue to represent a dangerous threat to American democracy. But the administration has begun to show cracks in its policies even just about 6 weeks into the game. Guantanamo Bay has been emptied of the migrants the administration promised to imprison there; Aid funding has been ordered resumed; the threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been paused, and refugee admissions have been ordered continued.
Normal Americans who will not tolerate autocracy in this country must continue to put up the fight against American tyranny, but now they have something to look forward to: the possibility that as soon as next year, Democrats could retake the House and Senate, and block the autocratic legislature that threatens to take hold of our government.