The Two Sides of Paul Kagame
In January of 2025, the rebel group M23—supported by regular Rwandan soldiers—entered Goma, the DRC’s eastern metropolis. A patchwork of rebel militias cover Eastern Congo, but rarely do they attack regional centers with armored vehicles, drones, and surface-to-air missiles. In Goma, M23 looks more like a professional army. The Rwandan support for M23 comes from Rwanda’s long standing president, Paul Kagame.
Kagame’s domestic policies have earned him an impressive reputation. Since taking power in 2000, Kagame has ruled as a strongman but is building an impressive resume. Under his leadership, Rwanda became one of the consistently fastest growing economies on earth. Rwanda has the highest proportion of women in Parliament out of any country. Kagame’s leadership has lowered child mortality by 70%, developed a national health insurance program, and defused the ethnic rivalries that led to the 1994 genocide. Rwanda now lays claim to Africa’s first smartphone company, is the host of the NBA’s offshoot Africa Basketball League and has recently entered negotiations to become the first African country to host a Formula 1 race.
Kagame’s immense domestic progress has led him to develop strong ties with the West. He is a frequent attendee of conferences in Davos and Paris, is a favorite target for foreign aid, and has strong support from the US. Consequently, 70% of Rwanda’s central government is funded by the OECD.
Simultaneously, Kagame’s foreign policy horrifies onlookers. Political opponents often flee the country. Kagame has been accused of using state intelligence to terrorize exiled political figures. Since coming to power in 1994, he has sponsored two wars against the DRC, including the Second Congo War, known as the “Great War of Africa.” Now, after years of backing the rebel M23 group in Eastern DRC, he looks poised to do so again.
Kagame’s support for M23 and mobilization of troops across the border has a turbulent precedent. Rwandan-backed wars in the DRC have twice toppled the DRC’s president, pulled in a dozen other countries, and has now received a rare condemnation by the United Nations Security Council. (If China, Russia, and the United States agree on something, it's generally pretty serious.) If international opinion towards Kagame sours, particularly that of his OECD supporters, Rwanda will struggle to maintain its prosperity.
The international community’s reaction to Rwanda’s de facto seizure of Goma could put Kagame in a difficult position. Kagame’s standoff with the international community dares them to intervene and sanction one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s brightest examples of development, a regional beacon of stability, and a reliable partner.
Simultaneously, internationalism is struggling. The closure of USAID heralds a global lean towards isolationism, and a tiny country like Rwanda may see its river of foreign investment turn into a trickle. If foreign investment is slowing, Kagame is betting on Rwanda’s military to secure his country’s future. Africa’s great lakes region (which Goma is built on the shores of) is home to some of the world’s richest deposits of coltan, gold, and tin. (Rwanda has mysteriously become a large gold exporter, despite mining little gold domestically.) If Rwanda’s reliance on OECD aid is murky, Kagame believes that the DRC’s critical minerals could be the next best option.