Keeping Up With US Foreign Affairs Island:

Iran enters the Villa with Nuclear Talks

Keeping up with US international relations feels akin to watching a chaotic reality TV  show titled US Foreign Affairs Island. Every week brings a new drama – an escalating trade war, promises of peace that crumble, and increased economic and political tensions. This week was no exception, with a hot new bombshell entering the villa – Iran.

On April 7, during a press conference with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump made a surprising announcement: his administration has been holding direct talks with Iran. This follows weeks of threats and denunciations between the two countries. This marks a major step towards potential peace in an increasingly unstable region of the world. However, there is also a lot at stake. Should the talks fail, the ramifications could be deadly. In fact, France's origin minister warned that if these talks fail then “military confrontation is unavoidable”. 

Unlike other recent fraught moments in international diplomacy, this situation isn’t entirely hopeless and there is potential for these talks to be productive. For one, it’s in Iran’s best interest for the talks to succeed. Leaders of the nation are also aware that a deal with the US will be key for reducing the threat of Israel and freeing Iran economically. Similar to the talks which led to the 2015 Nuclear deal, Iran is urgently seeking to reduce its economic sanctions. 

But  while Iran may be willing to strike a deal, it faces the unpredictability of the Trump administration, which has often taken a hardline stance against Iran. There is especially deep distrust because Trump pulled out of the 2105 Iran Nuclear Deal and then imposed harsh sanctions on Tehran, setting back Iran-US relations during his first term. 

However, times have changed. Trump is now facing backlash and distrust from many international counterparts. He needs to prove that he is capable of negotiating peace. A deal with Iran provides him with the perfect opportunity to do so.

So here we are: the US, who had become ostracized in the global “villa” for its tariffs and tough talk, is now trying to prove itself capable of being able to secure peace. . While things continue to build, Iran enters the picture, eager to move towards an agreement.

What is at stake in these deals? As we know, Iran wants to lessen its economic sanctions and have the US agree to hold off Israel. Meanwhile, the US wants Iran to dismantle its nuclear production completely so that it never has the capability to build a nuclear bomb. Here is where things get tricky. Iran refuses to get rid of its nuclear program for fear of being left defenseless. Therefore, the success of the negotiations will be on whether both sides can agree on what Iran’s nuclear program will look like. 

One of the surprising parts of this story was how it was revealed — during a press conference  next to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Now Israel and Iran have very tense relationships and Nethanyahu has even said he believes Iran is one of its biggest threats.  Therefore, there was quite some shock in Israel following the announcement. Trump announcing that there are ongoing talks between the US and Iran signals that the US has its own opinions of the region and will act how it would like and not necessarily always do what Israel wants. 

So thus things in the villa become even more complex.

Saturday’s negotiations reportedly went well. What was rather funny was that the talks were conducted in Oman, with the US delegation in one room and the Iranian delegation in another, while the Omani shuttle messages back and forth between the two sides. The scene is a little funny to imagine. At the end, Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who has no formal negotiation experience but is President Trump's golf partner and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met in person afterwards. This seems to be a good start to what will be long, and complex negotiations. The next round will take place next Saturday on April 19th.

I am sure next week’s episode of US Foreign Affairs island will bring many twists and drama, but we will be sure to keep an eye out on this developing relationship. If a deal between the US and Iran is successful it could lend some much needed respite to the middle east and be claimed as a success by the Trump administration. However, if it fails, then the region may once again find itself on the brink of military conflict.