Is the US Going to War With Venezuela?

Graphic by Miles Kershner.

On Tuesday, September 2nd, the US military killed 11 Venezuelans on an allegedly cartel-linked vessel in the Caribbean. According to President Trump, the crew of the speedboat had been identified as members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, which the US had previously designated as a terrorist group. As the ship and its occupants were destroyed in the strike, the quantity and type of drugs on board is unclear. 

Normally, the protocol would be to board the ship, apprehend the crew, and seize the narcotics – a very routine process for the US Navy and Coast Guard. Use of kinetic force via airstrike in a manner similar to counterterrorism operations is not only a significant departure from precedent, but is also almost certainly illegal under both US and international law. Simply designating Tren de Aragua as a terrorist organization does not provide legal authority for military action. There is also no evidence to suggest that the ship posed any immediate threat, which has usually been a necessary condition for similar strikes. 

But while this particular instance of extra-judicial killing is certainly shocking, it’s not exactly out of the ordinary. The US has struck targets all around the world with impunity since the 2001 Authorization of Use of Military Force Act (AUMF), which authorized strikes against al Qaeda and the Taliban. The consensus around many of those strikes was always that the US was stretching the legal limits of congressional authorization of force. Sadly, this means that arguing over legality is basically fruitless – what really matters here are the implications. 

The strike comes after several weeks of larger than usual military buildup in the Caribbean, likely in response to Trump’s stated goals of cracking down on the flow of illegal drugs into the US. But singling out Venezuela in this sense is slightly puzzling. True, roughly 10 to 13 percent of the world’s supply of cocaine flows through Venezuela annually (about 200 to 250 metric tons), assisted by widespread corruption and weak state institutions. But other countries play arguably larger roles in facilitating the illegal narcotics trade. For example, 1,400 metric tons of cocaine moved through Guatemala in 2018, according to data from the Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs. Venezuela also has very little cultivation of cocaine or production of fentanyl, which are better attributed to Colombia and Mexico, respectively. 

So why Venezuela, and why now? 

Many will claim that the attack was merely performative: a warning to the cartels not to attempt further operations. This is a laughable excuse for several reasons. Primarily, the cartels can always find another way to get their product into the US. As long as there is an American market for illegal narcotics, the cartels will continue to be the suppliers.

The Venezuelan political narrative has mostly centered around regime change. Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and other officials assert that the naval buildup in the Caribbean is a military threat meant to oust Maduro. “The government of the United States should abandon its plan of violent regime change in Venezuela and in all of Latin America and respect sovereignty, the right to peace, to independence,” said Maduro in a televised press conference. Trump’s rhetoric has been consistently accusatory and hostile towards Maduro, whom he accuses of running the Tren de Aragua gang. Maduro also famously remained in power despite being defeated by an opposition candidate at the polls in 2024. The Trump administration holds the position that Maduro is not a legitimate president, which is ironic coming from the man who himself tried to overturn the 2020 election, though certainly still accurate. According to Trump, the US is not considering a regime change operation. However, 10 additional stealth fighters have already been sent to the US base in Puerto Rico and potential strikes on cartel targets inside Venezuela are reportedly being considered. 

There is also the chance that starting a war with Venezuela is the perfect excuse for Trump to deport Venezuelans under the authority of an obscure 18th century law known as “The Alien Enemies Act.” The act, which Trump already attempted to invoke in March, essentially allows for the deportation of nationals from a country that is actively invading the US or at war with the US. Trump’s initial use of the act was struck down, but the decision has now been appealed to the Supreme Court. An official act of war against Venezuela, should it be given, might give Trump better legal justification for deporting Venezuelans.

The Trump administration seems to be combining the means of the war on terror with the ends of the war on drugs – two engagements where the US left a bloody trail of destruction, humanitarian crises, and ultimately failure across the Middle East and Latin America. Why would combining these efforts be any more successful now? What exactly is the end goal, strategically? If it is to crack down on illegal narcotics entering the US, Trump is barking up the wrong tree. If it is to get rid of Maduro, the question of what comes after remains unanswered. With history threatening to repeat itself, Washington is likely unprepared for a Caribbean quagmire of its own making.