Mexico’s Democracy Is On Its Deathbed, And There is Blood on AMLO’s Hands

Former President of Mexico, Ernesto Zedillo, wrote in an open letter that “Mexico’s young democracy has been murdered.” I believe that diagnosis is slightly premature, but there is no doubt that democratic institutions within the country are in critical condition. Unless the government changes course, Mexican democracy could be taking its final breath sooner than expected, and blood will be on Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s (AMLO’s) hands. 

AMLO served as the President of Mexico from 2018 to 2024 under the MORENA party. Before, during, and after taking office, AMLO wielded populist rhetoric while also contributing to the militarization of Mexico’s civilian spheres and consolidating authority in the executive. These measures have significantly weakened Mexico’s democratic institutions. Now, President Sheinbaum is continuing the march towards authoritarianism that AMLO began by implementing sweeping judicial reforms and gutting independent oversight agencies. 

Contested Elections 

AMLO’s political career began in 1976, but he first ran for president in 2006, narrowly losing to Felipe Calderón. He immediately claimed the election was rigged, refusing to concede and fueling five months of mass protests. In 2012, running again as the PRD candidate, he lost by a wider margin but once more labeled the results “illegitimate” and “not clean, free, and genuine,” insisting the election was rigged.

When a major political figure claims that elections have been “stolen”, it erodes the public trust in the election process while also undermining a pillar of democracy: accepting electoral defeat to maintain political stability. By refusing to admit defeat twice, AMLO weakened this expectation of respectful concession, encouraging future candidates to do the same. His undying electoral fraud allegations also helped to create a deeply polarized political environment in Mexico, constructing a “us-versus-them” narrative that laid the groundwork for the damaging, populist rhetoric he embraced after winning his third presidency bid in 2018. 

Populist Speech & Attacking the Press

Following the precedent he set before taking office, AMLO spewed inflammatory, populist speech throughout his tenure, which weakened Mexican democracy. Granted, populism itself is not inherently harmful, but populism becomes a danger to democracy when it seeks to “erode freedom of thought, information, and expression, or the ability of people in society and the media to criticize the elected populist leader”. AMLO’s rhetoric did exactly that. 

His morning press conferences, or “mañaneras”, were considered the centerpiece of his communication strategy and the primary stage for attacks on journalists, discrediting the media, and spreading misinformation. At least 179 aggressions against journalists and media outlets have been documented in his “mañaneras”. AMLO often labeled journalists as “hypocrites,” “elite press,” and “corrupt,” brewing public distrust in independent journalism. This rhetoric from the president is bound to create a ripple effect among the public by fostering suspicion of independent journalism and strengthening public receptiveness to one-sided political narratives. Over time, this erosion of the media’s credibility weakens an essential safeguard of democracy: a press capable of maintaining accountability.

AMLO also attacked the press through judicial harassment, filing more than 150 legal cases against journalists and media outlets and even exposing the personal and financial information of his critics. These constant attacks on journalism inhibited reporters from carrying out their work freely and fully, which severely weakens the information they disseminate, undermines public debate, and, consequently, democracy. 

Militarizing Civilian Life

While AMLO was attacking press freedoms and spewing populist language across the airwaves, he was also unravelling Mexican democracy by giving the military greater control. He created a Mexican National Guard to manage public security across the country and placed it directly under military control. This move sparked an outcry from human rights organizations who argued that rather than turn security over to the military, the government should instead reform corrupt state and local police forces. 

Despite his critics, AMLO has ordered the military and national guard to do everything from providing logistics to the Covid pandemic response to building the controversial Tren Maya. In fact, a 2021 report by the Center for Investigations and Economics (CIDE) found that between 2006 and 2021 more than 245 governmental functions had been transferred from civilian authorities to the Mexican armed forces. AMLO’s orders are eerily similar to those of authoritarian leaders like Bolsonaro in Brazil and Bukele in El Salvador, who have expanded military control into the public sphere. I believe that nowhere in the world has the deployment of armed soldiers pacified a nation or strengthened democracy. 

Consolidating Executive Power

In addition to militarizing civilian spheres, AMLO systematically consolidated increasing amounts of power in the executive branch. He spearheaded reforms that curtailed the budget, staff, and independence of the National Electoral Institute (INE), Mexico’s primary electoral referee. He also expanded federal social programs like cash transfers, fostering centralized political loyalty around the presidency. This concentration of power in the executive certainly raises serious questions about the resilience of Mexican democracy.

In September 2024, just before leaving office, AMLO pushed a constitutional reform to make the judiciary more responsive to popular opinion and political influence. Specifically, the reform introduces direct elections for all federal and state judges, reduces Supreme Court seats and tenure, and creates administrative bodies vulnerable to political pressure. Motivated by his belief that the judiciary favored elites and restricted his power, these changes politicize the courts, weaken checks and balances, and make it increasingly likely that judges will prioritize political agendas over the rule of law, thus threatening democracy.

Sheinbaum’s Early Continuity

Sheinbaum’s early months in office indicate continuity with AMLO’s and MORENA’s democratically corrosive initiatives, rather than course correction. For example, Sheinbaum recently disbanded seven government-financed, independent watchdog organizations that provide oversight on public information requests, telecommunications, and more. The duties of most of these agencies will be absorbed by other parts of the federal government and overseen by the president, effectively reducing independent oversight within the government. 

Keeping Democracy Alive in Mexico

And yet, Mexico’s democratic heart is still beating. The National Electoral Institute (INE) continues to organize, supervise, and conduct federal, state, and local elections to ensure they are free and fair, despite pressure. Additionally, civil society remains vibrant: protests are regularly organized and journalism continues to expose wrongdoing, even in the face of danger. 

These remaining beacons of hope show that Mexico’s democracy is not dead yet. However, it is gravely wounded, and the choices Sheinbaum and her administration make now will determine whether democracy in our neighbor to the south recovers or flatlines.