Reviving the Iran Nuclear Deal?
Suhas Nannapaneni
For weeks, both Iranian and United States officials have stated their openness to reenter negotiations without much effect. However, now there are significant first steps towards renegotiating the controversial JCPOA, even if it does not include direct bilateral talks between the United States and Iran. The delay seems likely the cause of domestic political disputes within Iran between forces in the government devoted to ending the crushing sanctions and hard-liners in the military and parliament as well as clerics who want reparations for the United States’ exit in 2018.
Within Iran, parliamentarians like Javad Karimi Ghodousi have denounced Foreign Minister Javad Zarif over his support to enter negotiations with the United States. This is after the passing of a bill by the Iranian parliament in December that would suspend United Nations inspections of the country’s nuclear facilities and allow it to increase its uranium enrichment. The bill was in response to the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a prominent nuclear scientist who was the driving force behind Iran’s nuclear weapons program as well as the tough sanctions imposed by the United States. However, the passage of the bill was tempered by government spokesman Ali Rabiei who stated that the move would not change Iran’s nuclear policy – a statement at direct odds with the Iranian Parliament.
Since then, Iran has reached a compromise with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog after threatening to suspend inspections until it receives sanctions relief. Although the International Atomic Energy Agency has been able to secure necessary monitoring, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi has stated that, “there is less access, let’s face it”. Although President Biden has indicated his intention to reenter the Nuclear Deal, he does not want to remove sanctions before renegotiations, while Iran predictably wants the opposite order of events. Since February 22, 2021, there now exists a three month grace period between the U.N. inspectors and Tehran – putting pressure on Washington and Tehran to work out their demands and agree on concessions.
In the face of this context, both the United States and Iran have made the preliminary steps to a modified Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. President Biden has reassembled many of the key negotiators who helped create the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2015. One prominent player is Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s incoming deputy, Wendy R. Sherman. Mrs. Sherman was the lead day-to-day negotiator of the Nuclear Deal during Obama’s presidency. Furthermore, Jake Sullivan and William J. Burns, who began secret negotiations with Iran eight years ago, are now his national security advisor and his C.I.A. director, respectively.
American officials have said they are willing to meet directly with Iranians, but the Iranian government has insisted on working through the Europeans. The upcoming proposals in Vienna will be unpredictable and much-awaited as both the U.S. and Iran have indicated that the other side should make the first move. Nevertheless, Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, has shown optimism and stated that all the steps Iran has taken to enrich its uranium can be reversible in just a few months.
Similar to Iran’s anti-deal hardliners, there exists opposition within the United States from Republicans and even some Democrats in Congress, who have introduced legislation to tighten sanctions enforcement and block the express disapproval of the JCPOA, President Obama set the clear precedent that although the US Congress can request oversight and review, the ultimate decision falls to the Executive branch and the Executive only.
Furthermore, President Biden must consider the much larger picture of how stability in the Middle East and the Iran Nuclear Deal will affect the US’s geopolitical struggle with China. When President Trump exited the JCPOA in 2018, he advocated a full press strategy, tanking the Iranian economy with strict sanctions enforcement. However, instead of forcing Iran back to the negotiating table, this strategy has pushed them into the arms of an expanding China. China signed a 25-year, $400 billion deal that provides critical investment into Iranian industries including banking, telecommunications, ports, railways, health care, and information technology. In return, China will receive a regular and discounted supply of Iranian oil, securing its energy independence. Furthermore, the deal calls for expanded military cooperation, including joint training and exercises, joint research and development, and intelligence-sharing.
The Middle East has become an endless quagmire for US foreign policy, locking in military engagement for twenty years and diluting attention from other regions of importance such as East Asia. Securing a Nuclear Deal, this time with the support of Israel and Saudi Arabia, can be a crucial first step to creating a lasting foundation for peace and security in the Middle East.