The P5 should stay 5
A lot of things are deserved in this world, but that doesn’t mean that they should happen.
India is a strong and populous nation. India’s growth has brought it to the top ten countries not just in economic, but military might. It is undeniable that India deserves a seat on the security council.
However, not only would adding India to the P5 upset the fragile balance in the Security Council and Asia, but it would also further divide the world. India does not act as a great power should. Great powers should align around values, not issues. The liberal order’s democratic values promote human security and prosperity across the globe. If India is to be considered for membership, it should align more with the values that benefit the world, not just India.
First, consider Asia. Adding India to the P5 would mean a disaster for regional balancing. I remind you of India’s geopolitical conflicts. The Pakistan issue remains at the top of the minds in Delhi. The XV and XVI Corps, along with the core reserve, remain in Kashmir. This is not a signal of a nation with internal security. Igniting these tensions would start a conflict that is not decisive, despite cold-start doctrine. Furthermore, Pakistan maintains that its nuclear arsenal is for both deterrence and warfighting. Containing warheads smaller than the tactical level, Pakistan believes that nuclear conflict is winnable. Even if these actors were to settle a new imbalance, that does not extend to individual actors. The India-Pakistan border is riddled with terrorist groups. Today, targeted killings of Hindus in Kashmir continue. The assassinations of Sikh leaders need no address. Adding India to the P5 would overall decrease human security.
An India seat on the P5 does not address greater disparities within the UN, but merely introduces a new power into a hierarchy. Not only would other actors in Asia, such as the middle power Indonesia, take issue with their increased marginalization, but other groups would take this poorly. Nonaligned groups, such as the G77 and Uniting for Consensus, fear they would be overshadowed if any seats were given in the security council#. Additionally, more rotating seats would have to balance the council, creating a larger body with more potential for alignment groups.
Rather than expand the current disparities, the United Nations needs to invigorate faith in the rules-based order. There is a need for real reform that would allow the G77 to have a voice and feel like participants in the rules-based order. G77 countries see a greater incentive to align with unruly actors who do not promote global prosperity. For example, Bolivia has switched to the yuan, leaving the dollar behind. Rather than reinforce the current system that does not serve the promotion of the rules-based order, we should turn to other institutions for reform. Such a plan could consist of reforming the World Bank and beating the BRICS-aligned New Development Bank. Loans from this axis promote lower environmental and labor standards, hurting human welfare in these regions. If there is to be hope in the rules-based order, we must invigorate faith in these systems, not reinforce existing hierarchies.
India’s muddy track record does not promote values, but issues. In 2011, India was one of the first countries to ratify the Russian annexation of Crimea. In 2014, India abstained on the vote to take action in Libya. India remains neutral on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Combined with their dismissal of the humanitarian crisis in Burma, India does not care to preserve peace. In the nature of this great competition, the world cannot afford an actor who pursues their national interest rather than the values that bring prosperity and human rights to this world.
India also has close ties with maligned actors. India has a clear incentive to lie in a Russian embrace. Note India's reliance on Russian arms. With 60% of its equipment requiring Russian parts, India has a clear incentive to support Russia. Additionally, India would have an incentive to align further with Iran, which also sees a threat in Pakistan. Adding India to the Security Council further strengthens the BRICS axis, which upsets human security across the globe.
Consider what is practical, not what is deserved.