Gathering Storm: Rising Potential for Conflict in the Donbas?
Robert Cole
For seven years now, a bitter war has raged across the Donbas region of Ukraine, fought between Russian-backed separatists and the Ukrainian government. The conflict began in 2014 when a wave of protests ousted Russia-aligned Viktor Yanukovich from the presidency. This movement was generally more friendly to NATO and the EU, the primary regional alternative to Russia militarily and economically. In response, uprisings in the largely ethnically Russian east and south began, culminating in the seizure of Crimea by armed groups strongly suspected to be Russian regular army soldiers dressed as local militiamen. After a referendum conducted under Russian occupation, Crimea voted to join Russia. Additional conflict between similar Russia-aligned militias in the east sought to exert similar control over the Donbas, a fairly populous industrial region that neighbors Russia.
Today, that conflict is not yet resolved. Though the overall level of violence has declined, the war has devolved into trench warfare and it is clear that the separatists would be unable to hold their own against the Ukrainian government if they were not supplied and trained by the Russian government. Indeed, the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine in July 2014 has been directly attributed to Russian forces active inside the Donbas region. While Russia continues to deny that its troops are taking part in the conflict, it threatened an invasion in the spring of 2021 if Ukraine launched an offensive to retake separatist holdouts. The current president of Ukraine Volodimir Zelenskyy has vowed to reclaim both the east and Crimea for Ukraine, further raising the stakes in the conflict.
Over the past few weeks, there are signs that another flare-up may be on the horizon. Tensions are not yet at the level they reached in April and May, but there are worrying signs of an increased troop buildup on the Russian side of the border. Videos posted to social media allegedly show Ukrainian forces mustering their own forces around the separatist-controlled regions of the Donbas, though both Russia and Ukraine deny a buildup. The United States for its part has acknowledged that a military buildup is occurring but Pentagon officials have stated that they are “not yet worried” about the situation.
Though the risk of an expanded war may be limited in the short term, some sort of showdown over the Donbas feels nearly inevitable. This vital region cannot continue to exist in a state of limbo forever, and both sides have a vested interest in not backing down. Both Russia and NATO, led by the United States, are determined to stop the other from expanding at their own strategic expense. The US in particular is facing pressure to hold its ground internationally in the aftermath of the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and the increasing risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. For now, the chances of miscalculation by either side remain extremely high and the consequences truly global. In order to avoid a catastrophe, the West should unite behind Ukraine and reach a settlement that is tolerable to both sides, while making clear that no further Russian conquests will be tolerated, not only for the sake of Ukraine, but for the sake of maintaining the sovereignty of allies across the world.