Human Rights in Belarus: Are Sanctions on Lukashenko Enough?

Divya Patel

“Europe’s Last Dictator” is a fitting name for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The six-term head of state has ruled the country for almost three decades and is known for countless human rights violations, electoral fraud, and corruption. Although Lukashenko has been accused of such habits since the beginning of his first term in 1994, 2020 brought these allegations in addition to new violations to light. Early into the Covid-19 pandemic, the Belarusian President was scrutinized for his mishandling of his country’s response to the virus. He refused to acknowledge that the coronavirus existed and failed to implement any restrictions, leading to a plethora of preventable deaths and turmoil. Later in the year, Lukashenko won the disputed August 2020 election against opposition leader Svetlana Tihkanovskaya, who ran despite numerous attempts by the current administration to keep her off the ballot. The official results claim that Lukashenko won 80% of the votes, but the European Union, countless Belarusian citizens, and familiarity with the President’s past seem to say otherwise. After the election, thousands took to the street to protest the results, and Lukashenko reacted violently; peaceful protests turned violent when participants were attacked with rubber bullets and pepper spray, beaten, and rammed into by vehicles. As a result, the EU imposed sanctions on the state, but Lukashenko was able to easily avoid economic catastrophe. Svetalana Tihkanovskaya was forced to flee the country with her husband and children, fearing for her life. 

In 2021, Lukashenko’s autocratic abuses continued, leading to shock and disbelief around the world. On May 23rd, 2021, A Ryanair flight carrying Poland-based opposition journalist Roman Prosetavich was hijacked flying from Athens to Lithuania by Belarus; the plane had to land in Minsk, and Protasevich was arrested almost immediately after the plane landed. This shocking overreach of power by Belarusian officials caused conflict between several nations and Belarus, including Ireland, Lithuania, and Poland; The EU condemned the actions and placed several sanctions on Belarusian politicians. Following the hijacking, Belarusian officials tried to force sprinter Kryststina Tsimanouskaya to return home to Belarus at the 2020 (2021) Tokyo Olympics before her races after she criticized them for violating the IOC’s policies. Fearing for her safety, she refused to board the plane and waited for Japanese authorities to take her to the Polish Embassy, where she sought refuge. These blatant abuses of power on both a national and international scale show that no matter the consequences for Belarus, including sanctions and international condemnation, Lukashenko’s still holds a tight grip and retains near absolute power in the state. Economic sanctions, no matter how radical, will not force a regime change. Instead, they will negatively affect the general population of Belarus, furthering their suffering under an already oppressive existence. 

This begs the question, what actions can external governing bodies such as the European Union and the United Nations perform in order to end these human rights abuses in Belarus without harming its citizens? Additionally, to what extent can they influence Belarusian politics without overextending their authority? Although sanctions are only proven to be 26% effective against hard autocracies, they are an important first step in identifying Lukashenko as one who is failing to uphold international norms in terms of anti-corruption, human rights, and voter interference. However, targeted financial sanctions, such as exclusions from SWIFT international payments, only devastate economic sectors and the populace; for example, the UN Security Council’s economic embargo (1990’s) on Iraq under forced millions of Iraqis further into poverty, while Saddam Hussein managed to cling onto power until 2003. More effective but less common sanctions include travel bans, exclusion from international organizations, and sea port closures; however, in Lukashenko’s case, even these sanctions have failed to promote change. Many of the EU’s sanctions on Belarus and its officials have been cited as “symbolic,” with the organization being criticized for not using its full power as a geopolitical force to institute true positive change for the people of Belarus. In addition, many of them have backfired and are starting to harm the economies of EU member-states as trade with Belarus is being halted. As a result, these bodies should be exploring additional options.

One possible solution would be putting pressure on Lukashenko’s silent partner, Russia. As a result of Lukashenko’s despicable actions both within the borders of Belarus and internationally, the country is lacking in global allies. Russia and Vladimir Putin have played a vital role in Belarus’s economic stability and development sectors; if the European Union and its allies were to offer economic incentives to Russia in exchange for persuading Belarus to allow bodies such as the OSCE to assist with elections, Lukashenko would be more likely to participate in dialogue. As Belarus’s only diplomatic ally and support system, Russia has a lot of influence over the decision-making procedures of the Belarusian government. Another possible solution would be for the EU to attempt to include Belarus within organizations such as the European Union directly through incentives instead of utilizing punishments, a carrots vs. sticks approach. Offering aid to the nation in exchange for global cooperation with international norms and policies would allow governing bodies to have more of a say in diplomatic relations with Belarus when it comes to protecting human rights, preventing international conflict, and ensuring justice in democracy. Essentially, organizations such as the United Nations and the European Union have to take further steps to ensure that Lukashenko and his government is prevented from infringing on the rights of Belarusian citizens as well as ensuring healthy diplomatic relations with Belarus. Sanctions are only one part of the solution, and global entities need to join together in order to end these abuses of power.