God Save the Oil: Yemen Holds On During the Battle of Marib

Jay Ramesh

There’s an old saying that, “The best defense is a good offense.” For the US and Saudi-backed government in Yemen, sometimes the best defense is saturating every square mile of dirt with overwhelming airstrikes.

The Houthi advance on the Yemeni government had been gaining momentum for several months. In mid-October of 2021, they broke into Shabwa and Marib provinces, both of which contain key oil and gas reserves. Marib represents one of the last strongholds the government still holds in the north, and if it falls, the government’s days may be numbered.

Despite making initial advances and seizing several districts, the Houthis were thrown back by immense Saudi airstrikes, leading to the death of two Houthi military leaders and at least 150 Houthi rebels. 13 Houthi vehicles were also destroyed as their offensive against the government was bogged down. The Yemeni government eventually counterattacked, taking back territory in Shabwa and recapturing a military base.

So what does it all mean?

Yemen was one of the non-so-lucky states that emerged from the 2011 Arab spring on the brink of civil war. Zaydi Shi’ite muslims (and some Sunni muslims) had rallied around the Houthis, a movement claiming to want more autonomy for Zaydi muslims, less economic discrimination, and espousing strong anti-imperialist sentiment against Israel, the US, and Saudi Arabia. When the former president and strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh was forced to concede power to Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi in 2012, the Houthis began to mobilize to overthrow the government. 

In 2014 and early 2015, the Houthis launched an uprising against Hadi’s government, taking over the capitol, Sanaa, and much of the Northern half of Yemen. As Iran backs the Houthis, the Saudis put together an Arab coalition backed by the US to support Hadi’s government in the South. The country’s north and south have historically been divided, with two separate states existing throughout much of the 20th century, and the conflict almost mirrors this divide with the Houthis controlling Northern Yemen and the government holding on to the South.

Yemen remains a top priority in US foreign policy. On one hand, an Iran-backed Houthi Yemen poses a security risk to Saudi Arabia and much of the gulf states. As Iran and the Saudis are fierce adversaries, a strong, Iran-backed Shi’ite state bordering Sunni Saudi Arabia and the holy city of Mecca would be a foreign policy nightmare. 

Bringing Iranian influence to the Bab el-Mandeb strait would also be a strategic failure for the US and the Saudis. 9% of the world’s crude oil trade travels through this strategic choke point, separating the Red Sea from the Arabian Ocean. Additionally, 30% of  global container traffic and 12% of all world trade passes through the Red Sea, so control over the Bab el-Mandeb gives the holder immense influence and leverage not only over Saudi Arabia, but the whole world. As we saw in Somalia, threatening world trade tends to get people to pay attention to you.

For the Biden administration, it is vital that a US-friendly state controls this vulnerable chokepoint. Thus, the US is currently working on negotiations to resolve the conflict and end one of the world’s biggest humanitarian crises: 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, and over 1.5 million have been internally displaced. If Marib falls to the Houthis, they gain even more leverage in negotiations to end the conflict, and a Houthi-favorable deal by extension means an Iran-favorable deal, and this would be severely detrimental to both the Saudis and the US. 

Though the Biden administration has announced that it will stop supporting offensives against the Houthis, this most likely isn’t entirely true. Ceasing aggression, at least nominally, is likely a diplomatic tool to get the Houthis to come to the negotiating table. The move also puts more pressure on the Saudis to take on a larger share of responsibility in the conflict without directly involving the US. However, make no mistake: as long as the US supports and sells weapons to the Saudis, the war will continue, with or without US nominal support.

The Yemeni government must hold out until negotiations and a settlement can be agreed upon, and until then, they must regain both the momentum and territory necessary to hold a favorable spot at the bargaining table. Although the US may say that it’s willing to engage in negotiations to end the conflict, expect the conflict, US and Saudi airstrikes, and Houthi missile attacks to escalate in the next year to two years as Yemen holds on for dear life.