Tunisia: What Goes Around Comes Back Around

Jay Ramesh

The Arab Spring started in Tunisia almost 11 years ago. Today, many of its citizens complain that their situation remains largely unchanged. It’s the same defective economic and political system under a different name.

An abject lack of political and human rights, coupled with a stagnating economic system, led millions of Tunisians to overthrow their authoritarian government in 2010. However, not much has changed since then, and although Tunisia has, at least nominally, implemented political reforms, many of its residents are still subjected to poverty with no visible way out.

From 2010 to 2019, economic growth in Tunisia averaged an abysmal 1.8% per year, lower than even most developed countries. Its GDP/c (PPP) (which measures the actual buying power of Tunisian money if GDP is divided by the country’s population) has remained almost exactly the same since 2010, and despite numerous governments and a rotating cycle of presidents, Tunisians have seen little hope in a better economic future.

To top it all off, protests erupted against President Kais Saied on Sunday, October 10, a mere week after demonstrations in support of him were organized throughout the country. The divide can be viewed through a macro-lens of citizens deciding whether political rights or an improving economy are more important to them.

Much of Saied’s support can be traced back to the poor economic situation that has plagued the country for over a decade. After protesters called for the dissolution of parliament in July, Saied was able to use popular support to overthrow the government. However, many supported him simply because he was not a member of the incumbent political elite, who many Tunisians see as having used the 2011 revolution’s gain in political rights as a distraction from the decades-long economic crisis. 

Now, as protestors for and against Saied organize throughout the country, political divides are deepening as appointed prime minister Najla Romdhane looks to form a new government. Saied’s government hasn’t seen any widespread organized opposition, so although the country doesn’t appear to be sliding towards civil war, the unpredictable political situation could easily change if militias start organizing against the government.

Tunisia was seen as the only true success story of the Arab Spring. While countries like Egypt experienced counterrevolutions that book authoritarian governments back in power, others such as Syria and Yemen slid into brutal civil wars that continue to this day. Let’s not try to disguise it: though Saied had popular support, his actions were in line with that of a coup. And as he has largely dismissed the constitution, nobody knows how long the strongman can cling to power. 

Tunisia’s democracy, the first and only successful revolution of the Arab Spring, was the last domino to fall. Its fall also represents a clouded future for democracy across the Middle East. If even Tunisia, the pioneer of democracy in the Middle East, eventually succumbed to economic stagnation that divided its population along political and economic lines, has the last hope of democracy in the Middle East been finally snuffed out?